Bitch on the Blog

November 26, 2013

Fat Chance

This is a bit random even by my standards, yet pus will out unless it decides to become a boil in which case it needs to be lanced:

Even I am not so stupid as not to understand “The Gambler’s Fallacy”. Naturally, such does the human mind work and superstition still with us since the caves, we try to will our wishes to come true and fall for the gambler’s fallacy every time. Don’t sneer. You will. Unless you are a salmon (or me) swimming upstream.

Vaguely related to the above: A friend of mine swore by that questionable person (can’t remember the author’s name for the moment) who conned his readers into believing that tossing dice/die does help to make a decision. I am not the most enthusiastic decision maker when I have no conviction to back up my spine 100 % but that’s just rot. The logic going somewhere along the lines that if, say, ‘six’ means you’ll do one thing and if you throw a ‘two’ it means the other you will know which way to go. If the die is cast at option one and you feel nothing but revulsion you know that’s not an option. Go for the other instead. Sounds plausible at first. But, take it from me, not that I have applied it since I can’t be arsed with shit like that: It doesn’t work.

Was it Rhinehardt or some such? Don’t try it at home. Man up. Make up your own mind. Props not needed.




  1. I still prefer the decision-making method supposedly used by Winston Churchill. All the pros on one side of the paper and all the cons on the other. Whichever is the longest list, I go with it. Rolling a dice is good for dice manufacturers but that’s about it.

    Comment by nick — November 26, 2013 @ 12:24 | Reply

    • It’s a good approach, Nick. Though pretty useless when faced with decisions where listing the pros and cons prove inconclusive, as elusive and slippery as a piece of soap in a bath tub. I tend to go by gut feeling. Rarely lets me down.

      I am no gambler (missing gene – more is the pity) but what I am interested in is probability, or rather how people fancy their chances. And how they justify their (irrational) choices. It’s fascinating. Currently working on a study of this subject. Might as well try and nail jelly to the wall. Amusing, not (yet) fruitful.


      Comment by bitchontheblog — November 26, 2013 @ 14:37 | Reply

  2. Intriguing…. what brought this on?
    As for probabbility…….. had to teach about that at primary level…..never having learned anything about it during my education….. problematic for me at first but gave rise to soem really good problems for the very able…..

    Comment by magpie11 — November 26, 2013 @ 18:41 | Reply

  3. Happy Thanksgiving my sweet and great friend Ursula.

    Andro xxxx

    Comment by Gray Dawster — November 28, 2013 @ 10:14 | Reply

  4. Yes – it was that guy.

    Lists – good but easily manipulated when it comes to length – sub-points, BIG WRITING, etc

    Dice – silly… unless it’s the only way for a person to be nudged into make a decision, any decision.

    Sleeping on it – that’s a good one. I think I’ll try it right now. zzzzzzzzzzz

    Comment by blackwatertown — December 1, 2013 @ 02:46 | Reply

  5. I do like the lists thing but as you say, it doesn’t work when the dilemma is a bit more complex than a pro and con. I’ve worked hard at totally simplifying my life and it is today, well, for today. A spanner can be thrown into the works at any point.

    I hope you sort. I’m not a gambler either. But with the addendum: “yet”.


    Comment by wisewebwoman — December 2, 2013 @ 15:00 | Reply

  6. Listen, U, I don’t even trust die when playing Yahtzee! 😉

    Comment by Lorna's Voice — December 3, 2013 @ 16:51 | Reply

  7. Doesn’t the definition of the phrase, ‘it’s a bit dicey’, tell us all we need to know? I’m not a gambler, except for the occasional lottery ticket when the pot is obscenely large. Other than that, routine life is chance enough for me.

    Comment by reneejohnsonwrites — December 21, 2013 @ 21:59 | Reply

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